If anyone wants to understand the difference between Mike Hesson and Gary Kirsten as a strategist, planner and farsighted head coach, the latest episode, in which Pakistan changed the Test squad 48 hours before the start of the first Test in Rawalpindi, is a perfect example.

Kirsten arrived in Islamabad as Sri Lanka’s head coach in early October for three T20Is, a tri-nation ODI series and a two-Test series with absolute clarity in match planning, player selection and team combination. There has been just one change to date: Pathum Nissanka failed a fitness test and was replaced by Lahiru Udara.

In contrast, Hesson, Pakistan’s highly rated interim head coach, made two changes during the ODI tri-series: Maaz Sadaqat replaced Sufyan Moqim and Sahibzada Farhan replaced Saim Ayub. Then, in a shocking decision on Saturday, he released Abdullah Fazal and Ali Usman 48 hours before the first Test and included all-rounder Aamir Jamal and uncapped middle-order batter Mohammad Tayyab Arif. Uncapped fast bowlers Ali Shabbir and Saqib Khan were also named to complete the 16-player lineup.

More bewildering still, the original squad was announced on Oct. 24 with Hesson’s consent, and the changes were also made on his recommendation after a three-day match in which none of the seven Test-squad players made a worthwhile impression, except Azan Awais, who scored a half-century in the first innings.

Yet the axe only fell on Abdullah and Ali Usman, drafted into the national squad for the tours of Bangladesh, the West Indies and England with big hopes.

Abdullah was sent home from the West Indies with an unspecified back injury but was flown back for the Edgbaston Test, which he watched from the sidelines. Ali Usman, who replaced Noman Ali, was one of the seven players released after the Lord’s Test despite his five-wicket haul in the preceding Test at Leeds.

The facts of Hesson’s decision-making are concerning.

Of the 17 players available to him for the Birmingham Test, only Babar Azam, Arafat Minhas, Azan, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Ghazi Ghori, Razaullah, Saad Baig and Saud Shakeel have kept their places in the 16-player squad for the Sri Lanka Tests. The nine players left out are: Abdullah Fazal, Abdullah Shafique, Mohammad Ali, Mohammad Imran Randhawa, Mohammad Imran Jr., Saim, Sajid Khan, Shan Masood and Ubaid Shah.

Whether the cause is a knee-jerk reaction from Hesson or surprise at the talent available, this erratic approach means Pakistan will take on Sri Lanka in the first Test at the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium, where they have lost four of the last five Tests since December 2022, to England, Bangladesh (twice) and South Africa, as second favourites.

Hesson’s selection philosophy has further compounded the problems for Pakistan’s Test cricket, which is already engulfed in captain Babar’s lack of form and runs.

Combined with eight uncapped players in the Test side, it amounts to throwing lambs to the slaughter against a Sri Lanka side that is rich in experience, well settled, better organized and improving with every passing day, as evident in its convincing win in the third T20I, which reduced the series margin to 2-1, its performance in the tri-series and the three-day warm-up match.

To recap, the eight uncapped players in Pakistan’s 16-player squad are: Ali Shabbir, Arafat, Mohammad Suleman, Mohammad Taha, Mohammad Tayyab Arif, Saad, Sameer Minhas and Saqib.

Sri Lanka’s strengths are not in doubt.

Kamindu Mendis made a maiden ODI century in the tri-series final, Dilshan Madushanka took five for 34 at the Gaddafi Stadium, and the squad has experienced Test hands in Kusal Mendis, Dinesh Chandimal, Sonal Dinusha, Prabath Jayasuriya and Dhananjaya De Silva. Pavan Rathnayake, who aggregated 427 runs in five matches, and Avishka Fernando, who totalled 204 runs, returned after the ODIs as planned despite enjoying purple patch with the bats.

Any side approaches a series with clarity and certainty about its players and lineup. Unfortunately, that is not the case with Pakistan, where who plays where is more guesswork than pinpoint accuracy. With the PCB offering no explanation for the changes and the pre-match news conference still to come, what follows is informed speculation.

With Ali Usman, the only specialist spinner, released and the side packed with fast bowlers, Pakistan will go into the Test without a frontline spinner, with Arafat expected to fill the role as a spinning all-rounder, and it can be assumed that the playing surface will support fast bowling.

If that is the starting point, who will open with Azan, whether Ghazi or Saad will keep wickets, and which five bowlers will be picked are all open questions.

Sameer is the only specialist opener in the side, so technically he should play, but there is speculation that Tayyab may be asked to partner Azan at the top of the order.
Taha is considered the favourite for No.3, with Babar, Saud and Salman Ali Agha to follow.

This is where it becomes exciting and intriguing.

Saad impressed with his batting in the ODI series. Will he replace Ghazi, who played the Edgbaston Test, or will Hesson show some consistency and retain Ghazi?

Arafat and Aamir are expected to take the eighth and ninth places, simply because Hesson has shown a preference for all-rounders in white-ball cricket over depending on specialists. That leaves the final two places between fast bowlers Ali Shabbir, Abbas and Saqib. Razaullah, an all-rounder who impressed at Edgbaston with 81 and four wickets, appears to be behind Aamir in the pecking order, though he could be included as a specialist fast bowler.

Form, fitness and experience should favor Abbas, but he too was dropped from the Port of Spain Test despite taking eight wickets in the Tarouba Test. His place, despite his performance, remains unclear.

Chaos mars Pakistan cricket, and Hesson, despite coaching Pakistan to the ODI tri-series win last week, seems to be at the centre of the storm.

Hesson has been making selection and coaching calls, and he deserves the freedom to implement his decisions as the person ultimately responsible for the growth and development of the team, but the misconceptions stem from the absence of any communication or explanation from team or cricket management.

Amid this selection circus, the focus will be on Babar finding form and on untested youngsters producing top-tier performances in the two Tests if Pakistan, Hesson and the cricket managers are to justify their selections, strategy and approach.

Cricket fans are slowly drifting away from Pakistan’s Test side, commercial partners are distancing themselves from the traditional format, and the wider cricket world, including the International Cricket Council (ICC) and the Test-playing nations, is watching Pakistan’s spiral decline with concern. Pakistan have long been one of the finest, fiercest and most competitive Test sides, which fans and other countries enjoyed following and hosting.

A poor performance in the two-Test series against Sri Lanka could have far-reaching consequences, including fewer matches against the top nations in the next ICC Future Tours Programme (FTP) and the ICC World Test Championship. It is hoped Pakistan’s young guns will rise to the occasion and provide a saving grace for their captain, coach and employers.

SQUADS:

Pakistan: Babar Azam (captain), Aamir Jamal, Ali Shabbir, Arafat Minhas, Azan Awais, Mohammad Abbas, Mohammad Ghazi Ghori (wk), Mohammad Suleman, Mohammad Taha, Mohammad Tayyab Arif, Razaullah, Saad Baig (wk), Salman Ali Agha, Sameer Minhas, Saqib Khan, Saud Shakeel

Sri Lanka: Kusal Mendis (captain), Anjala Bandara, Dinesh Chandimal, Dhananjaya De Silva, Sonal Dinusha, Asitha Fernando, Prabath Jayasuriya, Lahiru Kumara, Dilshan Madushanka, Eshan Malinga, Kamindu Mendis, Keshara Nuwantha, Milan Rathnayaka, Pasindu Sooriyabandara and Lahiru Udara