Pakistan will aim to extend their winning momentum while England will attempt to bounce back from an embarrassing defeat against Sri Lanka when the two sides go toe-to-toe in the first match of the Lahore leg at the Gaddafi Stadium on Sunday afternoon.

Pakistan defeated Sri Lanka by 37 runs in the series opener, and Arafat Minhas then produced a scintillating all-around performance to steer them to a convincing 87-run victory over England. On Thursday, England posted a colossal 429 for four against Sri Lanka but lost by two wickets on the penultimate ball in the second-highest successful run-chase ever.

In a match that produced 859 runs with 93 fours and 30 sixes, England captain Harry Brook scored 202 from 116 balls with 21 fours and 10 sixes. But his record-breaking, fastest ODI double-century was overshadowed by 130 from Pavan Rathnayake, 97 each from Avishka Fernando and Dasun Shanaka, and 61 not out from Janith Liyanage, who ended the match with a six at long-off.

While Pakistan already have one foot in Saturday’s final, England find themselves needing results to go their way. Even if they lose to Pakistan on Sunday, they will have a slim hope if Pakistan beat Sri Lanka on Tuesday and England then beat Sri Lanka on Thursday by a margin that moves them ahead on net run-rate.

If Pakistan lose both their remaining matches and England defeat Sri Lanka in the sixth and final match of the double-league series, net run-rate will determine which two sides feature in Saturday’s final. Before the return matches, Pakistan have a net run-rate of +1.240, Sri Lanka -0.348 and England -0.892.

Despite winning both matches comfortably, Pakistan have shown that a lot of work still needs to be done before they can confidently claim to have all bases covered in the build-up to next year’s ICC Men’s Cricket World Cup 2027.

Their biggest concern remains the top-order batting.

Fakhar Zaman has managed 16 runs in two matches, while his partner Saim Ayub has scored 15. Babar Azam has shown glimpses of his talent, skill and potential, but he too has been unable to convert good starts into big scores and has totaled 79 runs. Young Saad Baig has accumulated 74 while batting at No. 4.

For a change, it has been pleasing to see the middle-order rise to the occasion and take Pakistan past 300 in both matches. Salman Ali Agha’s 107 was instrumental against Sri Lanka, while Hasan Nawaz’s 79, Arafat Minhas’ 59 and Faheem Ashraf’s 39 did the job against England.

The bowlers, meanwhile, did what their predecessors so often did, successfully defending the totals. Arafat’s six for 40 was the cornerstone against England, while the pace quartet of Haris Rauf, Naseem Shah, captain Shaheen Shah Afridi and Faheem Ashraf have collectively taken 12 wickets.

Adding to Pakistan’s worries is Saim’s failure to deliver with the ball. In 10 wicketless overs, he has conceded 61 runs, increasing the pressure on Mike Hesson to promote Saad Baig to his original opening slot and slip in either world No. 2 bowler Abrar Ahmed or Sufiyan Moqim.

Whether this happens on Sunday remains to be seen, but Saim, to a larger extent, and Fakhar, to a smaller extent, will take guard under pressure to perform.

Expectations will also be high from Babar, who has been testing the patience of selectors, fans and coaches since his last Test century against New Zealand in Karachi in December 2022. He scored his 20th ODI century six ODIs ago against Sri Lanka in Rawalpindi last November and has since scored 34, 69, 16, 40, 45 and 34. The reality remains that he is the linchpin of Pakistan’s batting and is expected to perform strongly and more consistently.

Maybe a return to his home ground will bring that coveted big score, although in two ODIs against Australia at the Gaddafi Stadium earlier this year he scored 16 and 40. However, at the Gaddafi Stadium, Babar averages 59 with 413 runs from eight ODIs, including two centuries and two half-centuries.

As for England, it would be unwise to rule out a comeback, even though a poor approach and attitude undermined their highly impressive batting performance two days ago.

England will surely be nursing wounded pride after Thursday’s defeat. They will want to put it behind them, and there will be no better occasion to regain some confidence ahead of a packed schedule than against Pakistan at the Gaddafi Stadium, their home of cricket.

Unlike Pakistan, it was England’s bowling that was exposed. The fielders also failed to provide support, further highlighting their struggles with a white ball that becomes difficult to control in the dew.

There is little doubt that wrist-spinner Adil Rashid will return after being left out against Sri Lanka. Arafat Minhas’ six for 40 against England probably prompted Brook and Brendan McCullum to prefer Liam Dawson over Rashid, a move that badly backfired.

Sam Curran, one of the most reliable and committed bowlers, had an unforgettable match when he became the first England bowler to concede 100 or more runs in an ODI. However, he is unlikely to be benched, as England are expected to make only one change: Rashid in place of Dawson.

Given the above, Sunday promises to be an intriguing battle between Pakistan’s bowlers and England’s batters, and between England’s bowlers and Pakistan’s batters. The icing on the cake is that Pakistan will aim to stretch their unbeaten run in the series while England fight hard to stay alive in the tri-nation series.

Although predictions are risky in this game of glorious uncertainties, England, despite their humiliating defeat, will start as favorites. Sri Lanka may have inadvertently awoken the lions, who may also be hungry for success.