LAHORE: They arrive as world champions. They leave their best players at home. And they face a Pakistan side that has beaten them twice in a row and is hungry for a third. Australia’s three-match ODI series in Pakistan, beginning in Rawalpindi on Saturday, has the makings of a mismatch — and not the kind you would normally associate with the reigning world champions.

Pat Cummins is not here. Mitchell Starc is not here. Josh Hazlewood is not here. Travis Head is not here. And now Mitchell Marsh — the man who was supposed to lead this threadbare touring party — has been ruled out with an ankle injury, forcing Australia to hand the captaincy to wicketkeeper Josh Inglis, their fourth-choice skipper.

Pakistan, meanwhile, mean business. Babar Azam is back. Naseem Shah is back. Shadab Khan is back. This is as close to Pakistan’s strongest available XI as captain Shaheen Shah Afridi can field — and they know exactly what is at stake.

Win this series and Pakistan complete a hat-trick of ODI series victories over Australia — something that would have seemed unthinkable during the years when Australia dismantled them seven series in a row between 2004 and 2019. Those were brutal times: 5-0 in 2010, 5-0 again in 2019, with Australia also winning 1-0 in 2004, 3-2 in 2009, 2-1 in 2012, 4-1 in 2017 and 3-0 in 2014. Pakistan were a soft touch.

Not anymore. They won 2-1 at home in 2022 and then went to Australia and won 2-1 again in 2024 – with Cummins, Starc and Hazlewood all in the opposition line-up that time. This time, those three are not even on the plane.

The Australian squad reflects the scale of their absentee problem.

Seven players — Alex Carey, Cooper Connolly, Nathan Ellis, Matthew Kuhnemann, Matthew Renshaw, Matt Short and Adam Zampa — featured in their last ODI series against India in October 2025. Josh Inglis, Cameron Green and Marnus Labuschagne played in the series before that, against South Africa in August 2025. Two players, former Australia under-19 captain Oliver Peake and Liam Scott, have never played an ODI. Three others have been recalled after years away: Riley Meredith, who played his only ODI in July 2021; Tanveer Sangha, whose fourth and final appearance came in the ICC Champions Trophy 2025 semi-final; and Billy Stanlake, who last played in January 2019.

This is not a criticism of those players. It is simply the reality of what Pakistan are up against: an opponent whose best are elsewhere and whose fringe players must now sink or swim in unfamiliar conditions.

Marsh’s withdrawal is particularly telling. He has played only three of his 99 ODIs against Pakistan — two in 2017 and one in 2023 — and has now missed all three of Australia’s last three series against them. His absence hands the captaincy to Inglis, who led Australia in one ODI and three T20Is against Pakistan in November 2024. Should Inglis be unavailable at any point, Alex Carey — who captained Australia in three ODIs in the Caribbean in 2021 — is the next option in line.

Pakistan’s only genuine uncertainty concerns the wicketkeeping position. With Mohammad Rizwan dropped, the hosts have named Mohammad Ghazi Ghori and Rohail Nazir as their two keeping options. However, Ghori made his Pakistan debut batting at number three in the third ODI against Bangladesh whilst Rizwan kept wickets, and Rohail has yet to appear in an ODI despite being part of several national squads. How Shaheen resolves this selection puzzle will be one of the subplots of the series.

Against this backdrop, Babar Azam enters the series in ominous touch. The right-hander averages 53.73 in 137 ODIs, having accumulated 6,501 runs with 20 centuries and 37 half-centuries. Against Australia specifically, his record borders on the extraordinary — 686 runs in 13 matches at an average of 68.6, including scores of 57, 114 and 105 not out in Lahore during the 2022 series alone.

The 31-year-old also appears to be rediscovering his very best form at exactly the right moment. A composed 102 not out against Sri Lanka in the second ODI in November 2025 was his first century in over two years, since his 151 against Nepal at Multan in the 2023 ACC Asia Cup, and suggested the old fluency is firmly back. If it is, Australia’s bowlers face a daunting task.

Captain Shaheen, meanwhile, carries his own point to prove. In three ODI series as skipper, he has won two — against South Africa (2-1) and Sri Lanka (2-0) — and lost one, a 2-1 defeat to Bangladesh in March. His overall bowling record is formidable: 139 wickets in 74 ODIs, including 21 in seven matches against Australia. But his personal returns with the ball as captain have been modest — just eight wickets from eight ODIs in the role.

Shaheen the bowler has sometimes gone missing when Shaheen the captain has been needed most. Three ODIs against a weakened Australia present the ideal opportunity to put that right.

The broader numbers still favour Australia — 71 ODI wins against Pakistan’s 36 across their entire head-to-head history, and a commanding number-one ICC ODI ranking compared to Pakistan’s eighth, a gap of 56 points. In the context of this specific series, however, those figures feel like they belong to a different era and a different Pakistan.

Right now, the hosts are at home, close to full strength, on a winning streak against this very opponent, and facing a depleted Australian squad led by a fourth-choice captain. The world champions they may be. The favourites they are not.

The remaining two ODIs will be played at the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore on 2 and 4 June.

SQUADS:

AUSTRALIA: Josh Inglis (captain), Alex Carey (wk), Cooper Connolly, Nathan Ellis, Cameron Green, Matthew Kuhnemann, Marnus Labuschagne, Riley Meredith, Oliver Peake, Matthew Renshaw, Tanveer Sangha, Liam Scott, Matt Short, Billy Stanlake, Adam Zampa.

PAKISTAN: Shaheen Shah Afridi (captain), Salman Ali Agha (vice-captain), Abdul Samad, Abrar Ahmed, Ahmed Daniyal, Arafat Minhas, Babar Azam, Haris Rauf, Maaz Sadaqat, Muhammad Ghazi Ghori (wk), Naseem Shah, Rohail Nazir (wk), Sahibzada Farhan, Shadab Khan, Shamyl Hussain, Sufyan Moqim.